国际贸易外文翻译--人民币交易的复杂关系(编辑修改稿)

国际贸易外文翻译--人民币交易的复杂关系(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

a big rise in the yuan, Premier Wen Jiabao said in a speechin the . earlier this month, arguing that 20% to 40% jump in the yuan39。 s value against the dollar would trigger a wave of job losses and business bankruptcies that would cause major turbulence in society. As the chart below indicates, the relationship between the yuan39。 s value and China39。 s trade surplus is actually not so clear. China let the yuan rise 21% against the dollar between July 2020 and July 2020. During that time, China39。 s trade surplus with the . , grew substantially. In the first six months of 2020, before the appreciation ended, China39。 s surplus with the 2 . was $119 billion, almost a third larger than the surplus in the first six months of 2020, before the appreciation began. China39。 s overall global trade surplus grew even faster. It totaled $295 billion for 2020, almost triple the $102 billion for 2020. It was after the yuan stopped rising that China39。 s trade surplus shrankin the first half of 2020, as the worsening recession clobbered global demand for exports. China39。 s overall trade surplus in 2020 narrowed by a third. Yuan hawks acknowledge that the global downturn played a role in that slump. But they argue that the skinnier surplus also reflected, in significant part, the delayed impact of the yuan39。 s rise in 2020 to 2020. With the usual lags of two to three years, these currency corrections made important contributions to the subsequent adjustments in trade imbalances,Bergsten said in his testimony. If the yuan39。 s stronger value were the culprit, one might expect the . trade deficit with China to have contracted more than America39。 s trade deficit with other countries during the recession. That didn39。 t happen. The . trade deficit with China shrank 15% in 2020, while the deficit with all other nations besides China halved. In other words, even with a pricier yuan, recessionbattered America cut spending on goods from the rest of the world by more than three times as much as it cut spending on Chinese goods. The improvement in the . trade balance in 2020 was far more likely due to the global recession than a lag effect of China39。 s appreciation, John Frisbie, the president of the Business Council, which represents panies that do business in China, said in his testimony to the Ways and Means mittee. There39。 s little question that the yuan39。 s value has some impact on trade. The question is how much and whether it warrants the focus it has received. The dispute is between those who think price effects are the major determinant of trade flows, and those who think trade balances are ultimately determined by domestic patterns of savings and investment. Opponents of the yuan legislation say。